Friday, August 2, 2013

Possibilities of RJD-NDA Alliance

NDA alliance has ended in Bihar on the question of bigger role for Modi.

2. If elections happen today, there is more probability of a hung assembly, either with the JDU or the RJD emerging as single largest party. 

3. In any case (as of now) none of the three parties are in a condition to form a govt. on their own and almost zero possibility of any kind of alliance between them. 

4. There are rumors about JDU+Congress +/- LJP alliance in the state.

5. The recent inclination of Nitish Kumar towards Congress has increased the possibility of such an alliance; Congress has also softened its stand towards JDU. 

6. The presence of Congress in Bihar is almost negligible and would be of limited help to JDU, the base of LJP (a stand-less and agenda-less) party has also contracted. 

7. Still a pre-pool alliance would increase vote percentage, may provide them the needed thrust to win over the state again. 

8. After the NDA split the Main competing forces (for assembly) are JDU and RJD with BJP being at third position, so JDU has more threat from RJD than from BJP. 

9. Therefore the first Priority of Nitish would be to contain RJD.

10. Split with BJP and the Secularism rhetoric of JDU would certainly win JDU handsome amount of Muslim Votes and destabilize RJD's M-Y equation further, though there would be equal spill of upper caste votes but that won't go with RJD but with BJP which is a secondary threat.

11. With almost half of backward votes + newer Muslim votes + Maha-Dalit votes and a possible pre-pool alliance with Congress and LJP, the future looks rosy for JDU. 

12. If Congress ditches RJD in the same fashion as JDU ditched BJP what alternatives Lalu Prashad has ?

13. The first priority for Lalu Prashad is to gain power in order to keep his party alive, intact and united. 

14. In case congress ditches RJD and Muslim votes has to be shared with JDU, RJD has practically no alternative but to make an alliance with BJP for its survival. 

15. This may lead to further spill of Muslim votes but the addition of upper caste votes would compensate the loss and the alliance would certainly have higher vote percentage to seat conversion ratio. 

16. This kind of alliance would be the worst nightmare for JDU and its party chief Nitish Kumar. 

17. BJP in Bihar is more potent partner than the Congress and LJP combined, both quantitatively and qualitatively (as RJD, Congress and JDU share similar kind of vote bank). 

18. There is less to lose than to gain, if RJD comes under the ambit of NDA. 

Analysis :  
If we analyse the data of 2010 elections minutely, there were no significant gains in the percentage of votes for JDU and BJP. JDU got 22.61% of votes from an earlier figure of 20.46%, an increase of mere 2.15% but a significant increase of 27 seats while BJP getting 16.46% of votes from an earlier level of 15.65%, a mere 0.81% increase in vote% but a whopping 36 seats increment. 

What made this possible ? 
The answer is, 4.61% loss of RJD vote share. 

In First-past-the-post voting system, which is prevalent in our country, you are not always bound to perform, in case, if you are unable to perform or increase your vote share percentage, play negative politics, cut and divide the percentage votes share of your opponents, you'll still win with a very small margin. 

Check the 23.45% share of RJD in 2005 and 20.46% share of JDU in the same year, still the JDU has 34 more seats than RJD? 

In 2010 it was the loss of 4.61% of vote share of RJD which decreased its vote Share% to seat conversion ratio to 1.17 (1.17 seats for every one percent vote share) from earlier figure of 2.30 against a united and consolidated strength of JDU and BJP. 

Similarly, LJP, whose Maha-Dalit vote bank loss + Promising NDA govt. made it to loose 4.35% vote share and around 7 seats. 

Lets take an example to understand this Political Maths in a better way : 

Suppose there are three parties A, B and C with A and C, being an alliance partner. A is having 35% share, B having 40% vote share while the C having 25% vote share. 

1) As the A and C are having an alliance They'll surely win due to higher vote share. 

2) Now, the alliance breaks and all parties are competing with each other who will win ? 

The simple answer seems to be B (with highest 40% vote share)but the same is not universally true. The game rests with vote types. If B and C share similar kinds of votes (say of same or similar caste/religious groups ) 'A' will still manage to win. B having higher percentage of vote share would loose because C would cut short the height of B, lower than A, who would win with a very small margin of votes. 

Similar conditions exist in Bihar, after the NDA split, RJD =>JDU's vote share percentage, but JDU will gain newer Muslim votes and would diversify its portfolio with diverse kinds of votes ranging from MahaDalits to Backwards and even Muslims. The BJP would take away significant portion of upper caste votes and the Congress and LJP (if not in alliance with RJD) would eat some amount of  Muslim and Dalit votes respectively. As a result despite RJD is having highest vote share%, JDU will sweep elections and form the government. In case JDU enters in alliance with Congress and LJP its Vote share% to seat conversion ration would get further sharpened.

The Diversity of votes is a very important consideration for winning any election and that is the reason why Congress has ruled India 80% of time and party such as BJP having limited section of voters in limited geography always ends with disappointment. 

In Bihar, JDU is having widest portfolio of voters representing different castes and religions, ethnic and economic groups, which makes it strongest player in Bihar's politics. 

If RJD somehow makes and alliance with BJP, its diversity and strength would surpass that of JDU and all other parties putted together, as the BJP and RJD have unique vote-banks with almost nothing in common. So the diversity would increase the vote share% to seats conversion ratio by multiple folds.