The MODI Phenomenon

The rise of so called Hindu Nationalist leader and India's principal opposition party BJP's PM in waiting Narendra Modi is unique in several ways. He is being loved and hated by people like no other leader in Indian Political History has been. Here is an attempt to understand some aspects of the phenomenal rise of his influence over the Indian people and society.

His Supporters: 

1. Die hard supporters: His supporters have some kind of blind faith in him and consider him as some kind of incarnation from heavens for resolving all the problems being faced by this country today. There is nothing wrong with his die-hard supporters; they think they are serving their mother nation by serving him. Patriotism factor has been effectively capitalized by Modi Machinery to create such an enormous supporter base which is even ready to kill or get killed for him.
2. Normal supporters: Frustrated with the incumbent govt. there are plenty of people who are ready to support him as an alternative to the existing. They have or don’t have any good idea about his role in 2002 incident but are of forgiving class having faith in change of hearts and souls.

His Opponents: 

1. Strong opponents: His past record of handling of Gujarat Carnage and the subsequent developments under his reign in Gujarat has created an equally fierce force against him which is even ready to go thermo-nuclear any day, to prevent him from acquiring the national stage.
2. Normal opponents: These are people having their normal choices and don’t think that Narendra Modi would offer anything different and due to normal, political or ideological preferences are opposed to him.

Neutral People: 

There is also an undecided class which can not be classified in any of the above categories, that is his supporters or opponents. This class has further divisions:

                                                                

 Category-1

1. A- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall negative outlook but yet confused and undermined.
2. B- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall positive outlook but yet confused and undetermined.
3. C- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having no overall outlook yet

Category-2

1. D- These people have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall negative outlook but yet confused and undermined.
2. E- These people have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having a positive outlook but yet confused and undetermined.
3. F- These are people who have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having no overall outlook, confused and undetermined.

Now let’s move to strategy room of Modi and company and look how they are dealing with these separate classes of people and adopting different methodologies to convert them in their favor. 

Generally a multi polar/colored identity system is working in India to deal with such classification and diversification of people for example:

A Sonia Gandhi to lure Gandhi-Nehru supporter base, a Manmohan singh for clean image and representative of intellectual community, a Shinde as a representative of Dalits, a Antony to represent minority (Christian) interests, a Rahul Gandhi to represent the youth power, Salman Khursheed for Muslim representation etc. Each one among the above faces in top Congress leadership or the govt. serves different unique purposes and has created a multi colored and diverse power block. 

Similar diversification is also found in regional parties (but a miniature version) like Azam Khan, Mulayam and Akhilesh combination representing Muslim, Yadav and Youth aspirations.

BJP doesn’t has that luxury and that much diversified spectrum of leadership capable to represent the interest of each and every corner of the nation from Kashmir to Kaniyakumari and from Christians to Hindus, from Schedule tribe to Forward Brahmins and from a rural farmer to a world re-known economist. 

So! What alternative lies with the BJP? 

The answer lies in personality politics. Creation of a larger than life multi colored personality capable enough to represent each and every section of the society. The result is obvious the anointment of Narendra Modi as the face of the party. His multi colored personality and ability to strike chords with everyone else is doing miracles these days. 

His Personality 

His personality has evolved over time; one time considered an intolerant Hindu Fanatic and dogmatic persona, ready to eliminate a whole religious civilization any day soon, is today known for his works for uplifting the Gujarat from an economic, social and political turmoil to a fast developing, industrialized and rapidly urbanizing state. His performance of governance and administration got recognition world over, corruption free, business friendly and growth oriented polity has won him universal applauds.

For each section he has a different face, for Business community he is a modest reformer, enthusiast statesman and no nonsense politician capable enough to correct India’s credit rating and future outlook just from his little advances in opinion polls. For Middle class he is a dream merchant selling dreams of World class cities like GIFT, Wide roads, infrastructure and entertainment hubs, jobs, financial security etc. For Poor he is a poor Chiawalah turned Chief Minister having a firsthand experience of kind of life in slums and poverty. To some sections he is a backward caste leader who would make India’s first backward PM and end the dominance of Forward Caste at top. For youth he is the one, who would bring unprecedented economic growth and generate employment opportunities, a technology friendly leader who would turn the present lackluster administrative machinery into an effective one. He would make India corruption free and make us the superpower. He would attack Pakistan and end terrorism in the country. Different people have different definition of him, and different reasons to support him. 

Why he is so effective? 

The answer once again lies in psychology. He is a mass manipulator of a very unique breed. He understands where to hit hard and at what point of time. How to connect with locals anywhere in the country. He has very high diversity in terms of experience and is effectively using his huge experience base in dealing and converting people. 

Modi is not a new phenomenon in Indian Politics; he has been a nightmare for the congress party for at least last 15 years. Congress kept on ignoring him considering his regional limitations but he kept on evolving and evolving over time and acquired the present giant mass and size. There is no reason but the less than effective Gujarat Congress and ignorant central leadership of congress responsible for his present rise. 

Best Defence is offence ! 

This is the strategy presently being followed by Narendra Modi. 

He has pin pointed all the loop holes in ‘Congress Super Structure’ over the time and has ready to fire missiles in very high alert mode. I still wonder why Political Pundits never consider the timing of rise of NAMO. His timing of rise is spectacular especially with the sense that now congress is standing at one of the weakest point of its history of 125 years or so. His offensive campaigns, attacks on topics like Foreign policy, Defense preparedness, dealing with terrorism, economic policy, social cohesion, administrative efficiency, corruption, governance, leadership or anything else would seem more than justified to any rational being both in the theoretical and practical sense. 

Now consider his hyped, flawed statistics of Gujarat Development or his poor knowledge and understanding of History, Economics and International relation. This weakness can be easily felt if one pays attention to his rather frequent speeches at public rallies. The congress and other Modi baiters work 24x7 to pinch holes in his speeches and data he presents but at the end of the day there is hardly any impact over him or his audience. 

The impact assessment tells us a different story. His impact is far greater and intense than the parties and people opposed to him. What he actually does is to put a number of blames and accusations against his rivals. Though all his accusations are not always true to core or wells researched but are always in line with the public perception and general belief patterns. Right or wrong is not a question for him but the acceptability of his assertions, things are right as long as they appear true and acceptable.

He is conducting rallies after rallies in a very quick succession, everyday he has new set of facts, data, substance, claims, accusations and blames which keep busy the congress core team in research and data mining. By the time Congress comes with errors, omissions and factually correct answers, he has already made new statements in a new rally somewhere else and the discussion topic has shifted to the new controversy he just created and virtually there is no one available to buy congress research works of previous episodes. Even that research is made a subject of debate and discussion by the second and third line leadership of BJP causing frustration, helplessness and anger among Congress cadres and they end up abusing and baiting Modi in undemocratic fashion.

Though he may not be considered a class of a person, doing high quality politics but what surely he has mastered in is quantitative politics. Do what appeals to masses rather than having an appeal for limited no. of classes, it is also a time tested formula in Indian Polity Lalu Prashad did it in Bihar and Mamata didi did it in Bengal. A factually incorrect statement which appeals masses is preferable to a factually correct one but having limited audience. His speeches have humor, satires, mimicking, comments, jabs, fun, energy, enthusiasm, aggression or anything else needed for a perfect show. He has done to political speeches and rallies, what a 20-20 version of cricket has done to the one day and test cricket. 

We are living in a country where political parties have to convey to the rural and uneducated masses, every election, that Congress means Nehru and Gandhi and has a symbol of ‘hand’ and BJP means Atal and Advani and has a symbol of lotus. Recently a rural women, when asked, whom she is going to vote for, replied MODI and when asked what symbol she would press to vote him, she was clueless!! This might not be case for every Indian but the things worse if not worst.

Go to sub-urban/rural India, and ask people who are Manish Tiwari, Shashi Tharoor, Digvijay Singh, Rashid Alvi and Ajay Maken, or the Prakash Javedkar, Minakshi Leki, RaviShankar Prashad or the Nirmala Sita Ram and see what answer you get. These people only know or have good idea about top leadership like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Shinde, Chidambaram etc. or Advani, Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Jaitley etc. 

While the attack from BJP side is being led by top leadership like Rajnath Singh, Advani, Modi, Swaraj etc. the Congress is being defended by 2nd and 3rd level of leadership who are not even widely known faces. For some unknown reason the top leadership of congress is way too shy to face public which is doing more harm to Congress than any good. 

Possibilities of RJD-NDA Alliance

NDA alliance has ended in Bihar on the question of bigger role for Modi.

2. If elections happen today, there is more probability of a hung assembly, either with the JDU or the RJD emerging as single largest party. 

3. In any case (as of now) none of the three parties are in a condition to form a govt. on their own and almost zero possibility of any kind of alliance between them. 

4. There are rumors about JDU+Congress +/- LJP alliance in the state.

5. The recent inclination of Nitish Kumar towards Congress has increased the possibility of such an alliance; Congress has also softened its stand towards JDU. 

6. The presence of Congress in Bihar is almost negligible and would be of limited help to JDU, the base of LJP (a stand-less and agenda-less) party has also contracted. 

7. Still a pre-pool alliance would increase vote percentage, may provide them the needed thrust to win over the state again. 

8. After the NDA split the Main competing forces (for assembly) are JDU and RJD with BJP being at third position, so JDU has more threat from RJD than from BJP. 

9. Therefore the first Priority of Nitish would be to contain RJD.

10. Split with BJP and the Secularism rhetoric of JDU would certainly win JDU handsome amount of Muslim Votes and destabilize RJD's M-Y equation further, though there would be equal spill of upper caste votes but that won't go with RJD but with BJP which is a secondary threat.

11. With almost half of backward votes + newer Muslim votes + Maha-Dalit votes and a possible pre-pool alliance with Congress and LJP, the future looks rosy for JDU. 

12. If Congress ditches RJD in the same fashion as JDU ditched BJP what alternatives Lalu Prashad has ?

13. The first priority for Lalu Prashad is to gain power in order to keep his party alive, intact and united. 

14. In case congress ditches RJD and Muslim votes has to be shared with JDU, RJD has practically no alternative but to make an alliance with BJP for its survival. 

15. This may lead to further spill of Muslim votes but the addition of upper caste votes would compensate the loss and the alliance would certainly have higher vote percentage to seat conversion ratio. 

16. This kind of alliance would be the worst nightmare for JDU and its party chief Nitish Kumar. 

17. BJP in Bihar is more potent partner than the Congress and LJP combined, both quantitatively and qualitatively (as RJD, Congress and JDU share similar kind of vote bank). 

18. There is less to lose than to gain, if RJD comes under the ambit of NDA. 

Analysis :  

If we analyse the data of 2010 elections minutely, there were no significant gains in the percentage of votes for JDU and BJP. JDU got 22.61% of votes from an earlier figure of 20.46%, an increase of mere 2.15% but a significant increase of 27 seats while BJP getting 16.46% of votes from an earlier level of 15.65%, a mere 0.81% increase in vote% but a whopping 36 seats increment. 

What made this possible ? 

The answer is, 4.61% loss of RJD vote share. 

In First-past-the-post voting system, which is prevalent in our country, you are not always bound to perform, in case, if you are unable to perform or increase your vote share percentage, play negative politics, cut and divide the percentage votes share of your opponents, you'll still win with a very small margin. 

Check the 23.45% share of RJD in 2005 and 20.46% share of JDU in the same year, still the JDU has 34 more seats than RJD? 

In 2010 it was the loss of 4.61% of vote share of RJD which decreased its vote Share% to seat conversion ratio to 1.17 (1.17 seats for every one percent vote share) from earlier figure of 2.30 against a united and consolidated strength of JDU and BJP. 

Similarly, LJP, whose Maha-Dalit vote bank loss + Promising NDA govt. made it to loose 4.35% vote share and around 7 seats. 

Lets take an example to understand this Political Maths in a better way : 

Suppose there are three parties A, B and C with A and C, being an alliance partner. A is having 35% share, B having 40% vote share while the C having 25% vote share. 

1) As the A and C are having an alliance They'll surely win due to higher vote share. 

2) Now, the alliance breaks and all parties are competing with each other who will win ? 

The simple answer seems to be B (with highest 40% vote share)but the same is not universally true. The game rests with vote types. If B and C share similar kinds of votes (say of same or similar caste/religious groups ) 'A' will still manage to win. B having higher percentage of vote share would loose because C would cut short the height of B, lower than A, who would win with a very small margin of votes. 

Similar conditions exist in Bihar, after the NDA split, RJD =>JDU's vote share percentage, but JDU will gain newer Muslim votes and would diversify its portfolio with diverse kinds of votes ranging from MahaDalits to Backwards and even Muslims. The BJP would take away significant portion of upper caste votes and the Congress and LJP (if not in alliance with RJD) would eat some amount of  Muslim and Dalit votes respectively. As a result despite RJD is having highest vote share%, JDU will sweep elections and form the government. In case JDU enters in alliance with Congress and LJP its Vote share% to seat conversion ration would get further sharpened.

The Diversity of votes is a very important consideration for winning any election and that is the reason why Congress has ruled India 80% of time and party such as BJP having limited section of voters in limited geography always ends with disappointment. 

In Bihar, JDU is having widest portfolio of voters representing different castes and religions, ethnic and economic groups, which makes it strongest player in Bihar's politics. 

If RJD somehow makes and alliance with BJP, its diversity and strength would surpass that of JDU and all other parties putted together, as the BJP and RJD have unique vote-banks with almost nothing in common. So the diversity would increase the vote share% to seats conversion ratio by multiple folds.

Modi Bashing and Roads Ahead....

Modi bashing is increasingly becoming favorite sport in Indian media & political space. Recently his Puppy and Hindu nationalist remarks created a wave of criticisms across all party lines. Yet there was quick response from his party to defend his stand and clarify the intended interpretation of his words but all efforts went in vain. Other parties left no stone unturned to capitalize upon the available opportunity to launch attacks upon him.

Prima facie it looks like a situation where he has been sent into a political exile. In the puppy remark case without any exception, everyone else criticized him for a reason which he may not have ever wondered. If there is any occasion of criticizing him, almost all parties, are found standing in a long queue waiting for their respective term. Country is overwhelmingly getting flooded with Secular parties. There is an increasing understanding among political elite that more you bash Modi, more secular you become so no one wants to forgo this wonderful opportunity.

Serious questions were raised over the secular credentials of Nitish Kumar post 2002 period, neither Tilak nor Topi helped him to become secular but quitting NDA over Modi did the job!! Congress itself certified him. Even within BJP there is no unanimous support for him, former communal forces, now a day’s termed moderate, don’t want to see him for the top job. All these factors conclusively make him most communal and polarizing face in the country today.

Ask Congress, they say Modi is our last hope, If BJP projects Modi as PM candidate, the Administrative, Economic, Foreign Policy, Internal/External Security, Law & Order failure + rampant corruption and Price rise are no more issues, election would be fought directly on the basis of secularism and communalism where they may have an edge.

Modi has cultivated more foe than friends, in an era of coalition politics he is left with no one to support, parties are more interested to form a 3^rd, 4^th or even a 5^th front than coming under his reign. If this is the case then why BJP is projecting him as their Prime Ministerial candidate?

Let’s go back to 1977, during the period of emergency (1975-1977) every one suffered, may be it were opposition parties or the general public. Civil liberties were suspended; there were serious instances of human right violations, forced Nasbandis or whatever, Indira Gandhi was termed Authoritarian and Dictator and even compared with Adolf Hitler or the British or any other worst example possible. Four main opposition parties got united together to form Janata Party and rest others subscribed to its alliance.

Baiting Indira Gandhi was common practice at that time, she was left aloof both inside and outside party, there were strong internal opposition in her party cadres too, and a prominent leader Jagjivan Ram even left the party and joined Janata Alliance. It was a situation of Indira vs. rest. The rest were even able to form a government at the centre while Indira loosing near about 200 seats. Newly formed govt. soon started a witch hunt against her, who left no opportunity to portrait herself as harassed women and thus gained electorally by next elections. The happiness of Janata Party was short lived as it failed to deliver a strong leader and out of internal conflicts soon collapsed back into dust.

In 7^th LokSabha Elections (1980) Indira Gandhi won with flying colors (351+ seats) while Janata Alliance settled with mere 32 seats from earlier figure of 298. So what was the main theme of the story?

• Even major wrong doings of ‘strong leaders’ are forgiven.
• Too much bashing and harassment of one leader would win him sympathy votes.
• Any alliance made from large no. of parties can’t expect a unanimous voice and unity. 
• It is nothing but leadership vacuum which voters never tolerate.

Presently, there is a never like before leadership crisis in the country, which even the most prominent leaders of incumbent govt. can’t deny of. That is why, they want bigger role for Rahul or Sonia. Though, Modi’s communal image, which is so intense that in relative terms even LKA is looking moderate, is still troublesome for his universal acceptability. But this trouble becomes opportunity when you can convert your greatest weakness into your greatest strength.

Indira’s weakness was her image of an authoritarian, a dictator which she transformed into an image of strong leader and an administrator, who could provide a stable and strong government, thanks to divided house of Janata alliance which failed to deliver any such dominant leader. Narendra Modi’s weakness is his communal identity, He is perceived as a Hindu Fundamentalist who can’t represent minority’s interests, while trying to calming that aspect, he is more seen as intensifying that image. If we look at his game plan he has no interest in wooing Muslim vote bank which by no means is going to support him but to reckon upon the polarized Hindu Votes.

Today, the condition looks quite similar to what at the time of Indira Gandhi but with few minor differences. All parties are united against one man, who is having a public image of a very strong leader. At the same time, he is also facing similar witch hunt, may be, it is Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case or enquiry after enquiry over 2002 carnage. Congress has exhausted its whole party machinery in order to contain Modi, which is giving him quite more time on TV-news channel debates. For congress it has become important to criticize him than to portrait some of their good works.

There is another perception in our political circles that people are tolerant to corruption, show them the fear of communal riots, fear of some particular caste dominance etc. and they’ll give you license of looting the public treasury again and again. Up to extent, the electoral behavior in our country has supported the above argument but not to forget there always exists an upper threshold, best examples may be seen in the 1989 LS elections, where the Rajiv Gandhi lead congress, winning more than 400 seats previously, was thrown out of power due to Bofors Scam, In Bihar, 2005, people tolerating the excessively corrupt government, out of fears of change in caste balance, voted for NDA.

The present situation is grist of all situations, the incumbent government which has been voted for two consecutive terms, has broken all records of corruptions and misrule and the party has no agenda but the same old rhetoric of Secularism vs Communalism.  How many times one will use the same formula? Last elections in 2009, they were having huge economic success story with them, a brighter future prospect and clean image of a specialist prime minister but what about now? There is an 180⁰ shift in the position. Economic miracle is a lost story; the honest perceived Prime Minister is heading a most corrupt government of independent India, even his own integrity is under judicial scrutiny in Coalgate case.

Congress adopted a number of, social security schemes in order to clean its image and it was a high time to portrait its image of a pro people government, opposition was in a state of dilemma, whether to support or oppose schemes like the Food Security Bill bill. As Congress had adopted the route of Ordinance, the bill was already into action wile whole credit resting with the incumbent govt. There should have been huge debate sessions, articles after articles in news papers, websites and blogs over the implications of the bill but what is present scene? Modi is making news not the Congress, media is discussing the possible intentions behind either the ‘Puppy’ or the ‘veil of secularism’ Remark with leaders like Digvijay Singh and Manish Tiwari showing their immature behavior and criticizing him insanely.

Yashwant Sinha was correct in his Economics Time’s article that more they’ll attack Modi, more popularity he will gain. The congress seems completely failed in decoding the Modi’s game plan. He is inviting criticism from each and every corner and working for more. What he actually wants to prove is Secularism (in India) means Muslim Appeasement in the same fashion as Hindutva today means communalism? He is also successful in conveying this message upto some extent, see how Digvijay Singh, now is defending his religious orientation. His opponents mindlessly made a matter of Puppy and Burka remark with everybody asking him for a definition of secularism. This kind of attitude strongly divides people on two lines of his supporters and haters, even if they are in equal ratios, Modi supports vote is united while his haters votes gets divided in 30+ major secular parties in the county and that makes his chances more realistic.

But above everything else, everyone is baiting him but no one has presented any better alternative. Voters would ask, If you say Modi is not right for India fine no problem but whom to vote for? Show us the leader? He is changing the course of Party style politics of India into Person centric politics like what is prevalent in US Presidential elections. Today there is virtually no successful leader in the country, having statue as high as Modi, if there are alternatives like Nitish or Navin Patnayak they belong to such parties which at their best can’t win more than 20-25 seats. In Congress any leader other than Sonia or Rahul will be just another puppet Prime Minister with control remaining at the hands of party president.  So, Congress is hopeless in the case of leadership it could offer.

Manmohan Sing’s 10 year of rule has created a huge leadership vacuum which needs to get filled. Congress may show the fear of Hindu fundamentalism to Muslims or Christians but the fear of Modi’s reign won’t work upon Hindus and related religious minorities like Sikh, Jain, Bodh etc.  Conclusively, all these factors make unbiased class of voters confused if not convinced. So, in the absence of any strong leadership from Congress or third front, voters may subscribe to BJP. Congress must chalk out some effective strategy, if it has to maintain its competitive edge in the upcoming elections and also device out leadership from its barracks otherwise its worst nightmares are going to be a damn reality very soon.

The Iron Shield

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, recently unveiled his plans for creation of 'Statue of Unity' the tallest statue of Sardar Patel somewhere along Narmada River in Gujarat. He has asked farmers across 7,00,000 villages to make contributions in the project by providing used and obsolete metallic agricultural equipment for the Iron statue of the Iron Man of India. The project cost is estimated somewhere around 2500 crores and is expected to be built in Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode. The noble idea cited behind building of 182 Meters tall statue is to send a signal of national unification and integration. 

But the ideas and intentions are not as clear as may look like. There is a very strong message and a a very long term plan behind the project. Modi has outsmarted all of his political rivals this time and has incorporated gist of effective and proven political strategies. Lets have a look over the project highlights : 

1.     The statue is of Sardar Patel 

2.    The name of the statute is 'Statue of Unity' and has a hight of 182 mtrs. (higher than Staute of Liberty,USA)

3.     The location of statue is Gujarat

4.   Statue to use Iron/Steel for which Iron would be collected from farmers of 7,00,000 villages across the nation

1. The statue is of Sardar Patel : Why Narendra Modi choose Sardar Patel for the statue ? Sardar Patel was a Congress Leader and a unifying figure but there is very less or almost no similarity between Narendra Modi's personality and that of Sardar Patel. He is a follower of Vivekananda and can be seen promoting his ideas quiet frequently so the obvious choice for the statue, if any, should have been Vivekananda. But the same is not true but why ?      

    

                                                                                                                            Vivekananda

• Vivekananda is perceived to be a Hindu Spiritual Guru in general opinion so his appeal to the masses is rather limited up to Hindus only. 
• Personality of Vivekananda was very sober and soft spoken so he can't symbolize projection of power and personality of a tough leader. 

• Vivekananda's approach was more social than political, Modi's aspirations are more political than social. 

       Sardar Patel 

• Sardar Patel is called Iron Man of India, a unifying figure, has a mass appeal across all caste/religious groups. 

• A tough and aggressive personality, known for his strong will power and tough actions, all traits of an excellent leader and an administrator. 

• His approach and actions were very much political, strategic and diplomatic in nature. He always knew how to get things done.

• A political rival of Jawahar Lal Nehru (Though both belonged to the same party but throughout Patel's lifetime he had strong differences with Nehru and acted as a strong counterbalance to Nehru inside Congress). 

• Patel was Gujarati and Modi thinks everything related to Gujarat is his inherited property except probably M.K. Gandhi .

The plan has special setbacks for Congress party which will be in a state of dilemma whether to support or oppose the project. Congress will be the victim of the its own strategy "Support we win, Oppose You loose" as what we have seen in Food Security Bill case.

If congress supports or keep a mum over the statue project it will let Sardar Patel emerge as tallest leader in India and an open challenge to the status of Nehru. Project is such enormous in magnitude that after its completion would attract tourists from world over and the over projection and active campaigning by Modi and co may take the status of Patel equivalent to Nehru if not above. In long term Modi will try to intensify the stories of small rifts between the Nehru and Patel by multiple folds. Any alternative to Nehru in Indian political space is very dangerous and life threatening situation for the Congress Party and specially for the first family.

But Congress can't oppose as the leader belonged to the party itself and is a symbol of integration of the county. Any attempt to oppose the project would be at great disadvantage for the party as the Modi's PR war machine would create huge negative sentiments for the party. So the Congress is option less in this case and can't do much but to watch like a mere spectator. 

        

Congress has been projecting itself as a party of Gandhi, Nehru, Indira, Rajiv and so. Whole literature from school textbook to the Post Graduation level is filled with the praise for the Family. More than 90% government schemes have been named after the dynasty. Everything from Road to Ports and Airports are named after them. 

Nehru is like a trademark for the Congress party which adds a substantial brand value to the party which any other party in the country lacks. Congress is still cashing the works done by these great leaders decades ago.  BJP doesn't have any distinguishing figure to be Pitted against these leaders. Only Public Faces are Atal and Advani while Advani has communal image due to Babri Demolition case, Atal is no match even for Indira or Rajiv, Nehru is a distant dream. 

But the excellent design of Congress and Nehru-Gandhi clan is not foolproof and have good number of loopholes. The greatest mistake for the Congress has been ignorance of other great leaders of the country. Neither Nehru fought for independence alone nor did the Nehru-clan transformed India alone. All other leaders (even within Congress) having remarkable successes were forgotten. Sardar Patel in one among them to count.     

Narendra Modi, undoubtably one of the finest Political Strategist in the country, understands the deeply rooted pro congress sentiment in Indian Psyche and Society. BJP or any other political alternative in India is very short lived; these parties may win battles but can't win war ever. It was not for nothing that NDA was uprooted in 2004 despite excellent track record of work and developmental activities. Congress acts like some base along which the Power oscillates, whichever way power may go, it'll finally settle down at base and the Gandhi Family is the pivot or base along which this congress party moves, whichever may take the party command it will finally settle at the hands of the family. 

The NAMO mantra is loud and clear i.e., to uproot the Congress and the Family from Indian Political landscape. He understand the importance of the family for the party and the party for the family. If someone examines his speeches minutely one shouldn't be surprised to find a consistent attack over the family. But this time the scale is too large, he plans to attack the nucleus of the party, the pivot of the family i.e., "Jawahar Lal Nehru" and how he'll do that ? 

The only person who had challenged the might of Nehru was Sardar Patel. Nehru was more vocal, accepted and had closer associations with Gandhi which helped him to have an edge and securing Prime Minister-ship but despite being just home and deputy Prime Minister, this Iron man of India out-powered Nehru on large number of occasions. He always acted as a strong counterbalance to Nehru and second power pole within the congress. The rift between the duo is also well known in public and Nehru had gained total control over Congress only after Sardar Patel's death in 1950. 

RSS has been trying to malign image of both Gandhi and Nehru for more than half a century or so, fabricated and floated thousands of conspiracy theories, most of which failed to cater masses. Modi learnt from these mistakes and made an understanding that its really difficult or almost impossible to wash away Nehru and Gandhian foot prints from Indian social fabric.

Congress - BJP = Nehru + Gandhi

So, he has decided to manufacture his own version of Gandhi and Nehru. Therefore choose Vivekananda as an ideological challenge to Gandhi and now is trying to acquire rights over Sardar Patel (alternative of Nehru) in the same fashion as Mayawati claims rights over B.R. Ambedkar (Remember her Ambedkar Park, Ambedkar Nagar, Ambedkar Murti etc.)

2. The name of the statute is 'Statue of Unity' and has a hight of 182 mtrs. (higher than Staute of Liberty,USA) : If there is anything which Modi desperately needs, is a secular image, an image of a person who can hold all section of society together and move forward. Then what better could be than the "Statue of Unity" as a symbolic representation of his new intentions. He hopes that this great symbol of unity would pacify his present image and increase his acceptability among various social groups and communities. 

USA the symbol of power strength sophistication and advancement, everything MODI wants. In Past he seriously intended to project his Gujarat development at par with US but was humiliated several times with his VISA rejections and continuous boycott. Out of compulsion and lack of any other viable alternative, had to bend towards China Model. He recently told that we'll do such work here that the US would come here. 

The Statues are always symbolic and the hight and size interpret the power and the strength. So, The Statue of Unity is perceived to be Modi's answer to US and the world to look at Gujarat and the height of MODI's aspirations and therefore has been planned double the size of its US counterpart. 

3. The location of statue is Gujarat: Experts use to term Gujarat as a laboratory of Hindutva a state where all experimentation on Hindutva agenda is tried and tested before implementation on national scale. It is the safest fortress for him and his party. The opposition in state is highly ineffective or even non-existent. Modi has successfully tested and applied anti dote towards congress rule in the state and congress has no special advantage of its rich history in the state against Modi or BJP. Modi’s Gujarat model is not only about the rapid industrialization, infrastructural development, Urbanization and technological advancement but also about an ideological change in public psyche and Social order.

What he wants to do is to replicate this model on the national scale and “Statue of Unity” is seriously going to help him out. Earlier during Adavani’s Rath Yatra time in1990s, started from Somnath, Gujarat to Ayodhya in Utter-Pradesh. This Rath Yatra helped Advani to mark his national presence, rise as a Hindu Hriday Samrat and increase his seat count for the party from 85 in 1989 to 120 in 1991 LS elections.

Modi doesn’t need similar yatras in order to elevate as a Hindu leader, his Hindu Fundamentalist stature is probably even higher than that of Advani, what he needs to do is to emerge as a national leader. There is no Ram-Mandir this time as Ram-Mandir is a lost story and can’t yield votes anymore; also Ram-Mandir had the drawbacks of appeal to a limited section of society. But ‘The Statue of Unity’ is volume 2.0 of Ram-Mandir Agitation with similar political objectives. In this case the Yatra begins from Gujarat and ends at Gujarat; even the Ayodhya has been shifted in Gujarat itself. The statue is of a national leader so probably no opposition or resistance can be expected from anyone, anywhere in the country.

4. Statue to use Iron/Steel for which Iron would be collected from farmers of 7,00,000 villages across the nation: Statue of Iron for the Iron man looks impressive but there are other objectives as well to be served. During Ram-Mandir agitation of Advani, he had started collecting bricks for the Rama temple from all over the country. Every family was asked to contribute one brick which will be used somewhere in the temple. This was an attempt of unifying Hindu vote bank across all caste lines on the name of lord Rama. The attempt was successful within years of these efforts BJP came into power.

There were several drawbacks in the brick collection programme which faced resistance and ire of Muslims and some other communities on several locations in the country for example Bombs were thrown over the Yatra in Bhagalpure,1989 which resulted in communal riots killing around 1000s of people. Modi’s political career can’t afford any more riots or even a large scale violent conflict anymore this is the reason why Modi can’t carry forward Advani’s agenda.

For the statue of Sardar Patel he has demanded agricultural equipment of iron from more than 7,00,000 villages in the country which would be melted to be used in the statue. No protest can be expected from anywhere in the county, and if someone opposes the move, blame comes upon the opposing party itself. All opposing parties can be easily termed as antinational if they try to oppose the Yatra 2.0, scheduled October 31, 2013 and would last January 2014.  

This collection of iron from farmers across all villages in the country (before 2014 elections, might have the same kind of impact over public psyche as has happened in 1989 brick collection for the Ram Mandir but with a wider and broader participation of people.

Narendra Modi is already riding over the Hindutva Vote bank with full backing of RSS, VHP and whole Baba Community. He is perceived to be a man of action, an icon a symbol of governance and development and the only thing he needs now is to have a unifying figure for which he is planning to use Sardar Patel. 

Though it is too early to claim that all these efforts are going to help him to win over mass support before 2014 elections but one thing is sure that he is seriously going to challenge the conventional Indian Politics.

Lost it all - Dr. Manmohan Singh

Our present Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is no politician; he is a specialist and an expert on the economic matters. How much proficiency he may enjoy in his area of expertise, he still has to prove politically. People specially, his Congress supporters often quote of his accomplishments of 1991, when he successfully bought economic liberalization in then a sick economy of India but not to forget who bore the political risk at that time. It was no other than the Great prime-minister of the time Shree P.V. Narasimha Rao.

If we turn back History pages we will find that Manmohan Singh had even refused to join Narasimha Rao govt. as a finance minister. When PM had asked reasons, he cited his inability to handle political pressure. Only after Narasimha Rao assured him of complete immunity of political pressure he agreed to join the govt. and later architected economic liberalization model for India.

But the question arises, if it was not Manmohan Singh in 1991 was economic liberalization not possible?

Is Manmohan Singh greatest economist India has ever produced or even a greatest contemporary economist?

Answer is no! There were, and there are many equivalents or even better economists.  So if it was not Manmohan Singh then somebody else would have done the job. India never lacked specialists, they are always available with best solutions but the tragedy has been mainly on political part to execute them. Things like economic liberalization are more a Policy and Polity trouble than that of technical one. If somebody really deserves the credit for the 1991 policy reforms it is none other than P.V. Narasimha Rao who, then, heading a minority govt. sailed through the Economic, Social and Political Tsunami and still completed his full term but ironically hardly anyone from his own party lines, owes him any credit for that.

People often say he (Manmohan Singh) is under credited; he is introvert and blah-blah!!

The reality is far from the truth.

 The main administrative tasks of PM are:

•      Allocation/Reshuffles of portfolios among different ministers.
•      Preside over meetings of council of ministers and influence its decisions.
•      Guide, direct, control and coordinate the activities of his ministers.
•     Managing the council of ministers as a single entity by way of effective communication and coordination, a conscience maker and a troubleshooter. 
•     Managing discipline and keeping a check over the actions of his ministers and sometimes  even over powering them by using his veto or advising the president to dismiss him in case of difference of opinion.

Present Prime minister lacks all the above traits, he has almost no or negligible hold over his council of ministers specially the cabinet. He enjoys no political supremacy over other cabinet/ministers. It is a universally accepted fact that all the political powers under the present govt. are vested in Congress president Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister is just a nominal head of the government, and an appealing public face.

PM should be commanding and must enjoy political supremacy among his top decision making body i.e., Cabinet, but his status is just ‘first among equals’ rather ‘above everyone else’ and has almost no command or hold over his ministers, every minister in his/her own capacity is free to do anything according to personal will or preference. Present Cabinet does not lack either the quality, expertise or the experience but there is an absolute absence of communication and coordination and thus almost no positive yield. Power is getting concentrated among individual camps, close and loyal to 10 Janpath and hence rewards are mostly based upon loyalty principle than that of performance.

Under Indira Gandhi govt. PMO emerged as a power centre, a top decision making body, its status was even above cabinet, its decisions were unquestionable. Further PMs Like Rajeev Gandhi and A.B. Vajpayee further consolidated its position, under A.B. Vajpayee govt. even his Principal secretary Brijesh Mishra on several occasions, enjoyed an upper hand over that of then Home Minister L.K. Advani (then politically no. 2 in BJP/NDA). The main benefit of a centralized, consolidated and powerful PM/PMO is that, it brings more coherency in government actions and the whole government acts as a single entity, there could be internal differences between ministers/ministries but never a dispute and a standstill situation.

Today, if we analyze the decision making at top we will find there is nothing but chaos, the greatest question remaining, whom to take instructions from ? P.Chidambaram, Susheel Kumar Shinde, A.k. Antoney, Jayram Ramesh, Salman Khursheed, Kapil Sibbal etc. share similar/equivalent ranks with constantly varying degree of Status, Ranks and association with 10 Janpath and obviously there is great degree of difference of opinions among them (a normal situation under any govt.)  But due to lack of leadership abilities in our Prime Minister, it up to ministers to resolve their differences among themselves or visit 10 Janpath if some major question of politics is involved. Even PM does not consider it fit to take actions without due consultations and advice of 10 Janpath, and Mrs. Gandhi willingly/unwillingly has to interfere in the govt. decision-making.

While P. Chidambaram on several occasions tried to avoid the conditions of standoff between different ministries through several small cabinet committees for quick decision making but his strong willingness served no serious purpose due to unwilling or irresponsible PMO. The only function PM delivers efficiently is the rather frequent Reshuffles of portfolios among different ministers and even that based upon newly arrived political equations at 10 Janpath.

Call it Dynasty or whatever but politically Mrs. Gandhi has consolidated the party which was on the verge of total and throughout collapse.  Our PM’s inability to handle the Govt. and Politics has compelled her to step into. If Dr. Manmohan Singh has had the ability to lead a coalition government effectively this could have been one of the best governments India has ever witnessed. Everything was favorable to create a history other than the leadership. Most of the interference which comes through 10 Janpath is under pressure and due to lack of any other alternative. As Manmohan has thoroughly failed to provide a leadership, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi has to act.

As there is virtually no control over the ministers from central leadership, they have become totally irresponsible, undisciplined and corrupt. Rampant corruption has spread across whole party lines, large scams and scandals are day to day affair, in nascent stages ministers themselves try to do cover ups at their levels but when they fail, they knock doors of 10 Janpath. Then, the whole government machinery is abused in order to remove the trails and carry on the wash-ups. For example there is hardly any investigating agency in the country including CBI having retained Public faith anymore. Abuse of power and CBI is not a new phenomenon but people still use to have some faith in them which is non-existent nowadays.

There is difference between Administration and management and what present govt. is trying to do is some kind of management in order to keep the government alive at whatever cost. Govt. is being run with the abuse of power, money and blackmailing. UPA has differences with almost all of her allies on some point or the other and uses coercive and repressive means to keep them checked and under control.

Though the performance of UPA – I was still satisfactory there couldn’t be any worse example of governance than that of UPA-II. It can only be compared with the famous “Jungle Raj” of Lalu Prashad Yadav’s Regime in Bihar but at a much larger scale. There is an overall anarchy everywhere; one can’t feel existence of any government. The country is suffering on each and every front, and maybe it is General Administration, Crime, Social, Political, Economical, Corruption, internal policy, foreign policy, internal security and external security or whatever, govt. has failed on each and every front.

Today states mainly lead by Non-Congress/Non-UPA parties are being treated as foreign territories. Former bureaucrats with proven track records of loyalties with Gandhi family are selected as Governors in these states and they are assigned with tasks to interfere in the activities of the state government even through Ultra-Vire means. Central govt. discriminates with them on each and every aspect and even hesitates to allot them their rightful share of revenues, taxes and aid for the implementation of centrally sponsored schemes.

One of the biggest disasters has been foreign policy; today we have arrived such a point where even NEPAL or BHUTAN could claim a more independent and better foreign policy than that of us. Our Diplomacy is limited up to banning Cricket/Hocky matches with Pakistan. Our neighbors without any exception are freely carrying out anti India activities and we are unable to figure out any or take any action in this regard. Who should be blamed for the situation Foreign minister or Congress President? Nah!!! It’s our PM who should take responsibilities for these miseries and vacate the office so that some responsible person could come in and take the charge.

कश्मीरी शाल वाला

आज सुबह, एक लम्बे अरसे के बाद, एक चाय की दुकान पर एक कश्मीरी शाल वाले से मुलाकात हो गयी. उसे देख कर बचपन की ढेर सारी यादें ताज़ा हो गयीं. कश्मीरी शाल वालों से मेरा काफी पुराना नाता रहा है. बचपन से, इन कश्मीरी शाल वालों को गली मुहल्लों में घूम-घूम कर शाल बेचते देखता आया हूँ. उन्हें पहचानना काफी आसान होता है. लम्बा चहरा, गोरा वर्ण, लगभग चौथाई इंच की तराशी हुई दाढ़ी, अच्छी कद-काठी और पास में एक बड़ा सा सफ़ेद गट्ठर. वो हमेशा से मेरे लिए काफी दिलचस्प रहें हैं. 

बचपन से कश्मीर में फैले आतंकवाद के बारे में रूचि के साथ सुनता-पढता रहा, और उन दिनों जब भी माँ या आस पास की आंटिया, उन्हें बुलाती थीं तो मैं काफी सहम सा जाता था. मैं डरता था के कहीं ये भी कोई आतंकवादी तो नहीं. जब वो अपना गट्ठर खोलते, मेरी धड़कने  बढ़ने लगतीं, ऐसा लगता मानो ये अभी अन्दर से AK - 47 निकलेगा और हम पर अन्धाधुन गोलिया बरसा देगा. कई बार तो एतियात के तौर पर मैं अपनी जेब में एक रसोई वाली छुरी भी छुपा लेता, पर जब पूरे गट्ठर से कोई भी मशीनगन या कार्बाइन नहीं निकलती, तो मैं निराश हो कर घर में वापिस लौट जाता. 

ना जाने कितनी बार मैंने उनसे कश्मीर के बारें में पूछा होगा. पर हर, बार चाहे जिस भी तरीके या जितना भी घुमा फिरा के पूछा हो, मेरे प्रश्न हमेशा एक ही रहें हैं, " कश्मीर के लोग भारत के साथ रहना चाहते हैं या पाकिस्तान के साथ" और " वहां की समस्याओं के लिए कौन जिम्मेदार है". प्रश्न पूछने से पहले ही मेरे  मन में, आदर्श उत्तर तैयार होते थे, मैं सुनना चाहता था के वो कहें कि, वो भारत के साथ रहना चाहते हैं और कश्मीर की सारी समस्याओं के लिए पाकिस्तान जिम्मेदार है. पर बदकिस्मती से हमेशा ही उन्होंने मुझे निराश किया और हर बार प्रत्यक्ष या अप्रत्यक्ष शब्दों मैं उनका उत्तर एक ही रहा है  क्रमशः " स्वायत्तता" तथा " फौजी". मैं निराश हो जाता, और आपने मन में उन्हें गुमराह, अनपढ़ तथा बेवक़ूफ़ मान कर क्षमा कर देता.  

आज तक़रीबन सात या आठ साल के बाद एक बार फिर मौका मिला उनसे रूबरू होने का. सड़क के किनारे की एक चाय की दुकान पर एक कश्मीरी शाल वाला बैठा दिखा, उसे देख कर एक अजीब सी खुशी महसूस हुई, मैंने सोचा की एक बार फिर देखता हूँ की इनकी सोच मैं कुछ बदलाव आया है या नहीं, लेकिन पहले से पृथक अंतर इतना था कि, आज मेरे मन में कोई आदर्श उत्तर नहीं थे. मैं भी वहां पहुंचा और चाय वाले को एक स्पेशल चाय बनाने को कहा, चाय वाले को शायद 'स्पेशल' शब्द पसंद नहीं आया, और उसने मुझें खरी खोटी सुना दी. खैर बर्दास्त का घूंट पी कर मैंने मामले को जाने दिया और अपने मुख्य मिशन पर जुट गया. 

मेरी शाल वाले के साथ हुई बातचीत के अंश : 

मैं : और कश्मीर मैं तो बहुत ठंढ होगी अभी तो ! 

शाल वाला : हाँ जी बहुत ज़्यादा, यहाँ तो कुछ भी ठंढी नहीं हैं. 

मैं : और कश्मीर मैं कहाँ से हैं आप ?

शाल वाला : जी अनंतनाग, आप गएँ हैं क्या कश्मीर कभी ? 

मैं : नहीं , कश्मीर तो नहीं गया लेकिन जम्मू गया हूँ ऎक बार.

शाल वाला : कहाँ वैष्णोदेवी ? 

मैं : हूँ.

मैं : अनंतनाग कितनी दूर है, श्रीनगर से ? 

शाल वाला : श्रीनगर जाने के रस्ते में आता है, पहले है उससे.

मैं : ओं, और अब तो घाटी में शांति है काफी, टूरिस्ट वेगेरह भी जाने लगें हैं अब तो, सुना है 

शाल वाला : हाँ 2010  बाद से सब लगभग सही है, टूरिस्ट तो हमेशा से ही आते रहें हैं. 

मैं : नहीं मेरा मतलब थोडा कम गया था ना टूरिस्ट का आना, आतंकवाद वगेरह के वजह से. 

शाल वाला : (चेहरे पर असहमति के भाव परन्तु फिर भी सहमति में सर हिलाते हुए)

मैं : और आपके घर में कौन कौन है उधर ?

शाल वाला : जी एक भाई है, माँ और बाप. 

मैं : भाई क्या करता है आपका ? 

शाल वाला : जी वो भी शाल बेचता है.

चाय बन चुकी थी ... और चाय वाला हमें चाय का गिलास पकड़ते हुए (उसकी आँखों मैं अभी भी स्पेशल चाय की खुन्नस साफ दिख रही थी, और मैंने निर्णय लिया अब जिन्दगी में कभी भी स्पेशल चाय बनाने नहीं बोलूँगा किसी को)

एकाधा चुस्की लेने और थोड़ा इधर-उधर देखने के बाद मुझसे नहीं रहा गया और संकोच के साथ मैंने पूछ ही लिए अपने दो पेटेंटेड सवाल. 

मैं : अच्छा एक चीज बताइए, ये जो इतना सुनते हैं कश्मीर के बारे में, टीवी में, पेपर में, एक्चुअल प्रॉब्लम क्या है वहां की ? कौन जिम्मेदार है इन सब प्रोब्लेम्स के लिए ? 

शाल वाला : "फौजी लोग" 

मैं : हूँ.... ओके....

शाल वाला : ये लोग 2010  मैं पब्लिक पर फायरिंग कर दिया,140 आदमी लोग मारा गया, जवान 

लड़का लोग था सब. 

मैं : वो 2010 में...

(मुझे बीच मैं रोकते हुए... ) 

शाल वाला : मनमानी करता है ये लोग, जैसे चाहता है वैसे करता है....

मैं : ओह.. लेकिन आतंकवादी भी तो बहुत हैं वहां, आर्मी नहीं होगी तो कैसे कम चलेगा ? 

शाल वाला : मिलिट्री वाला लोग सब बॉर्डर पर रहे, हर जगह क्यों भरा हुआ है, सब पैसा का बात है, पहले पैसा ले कर उनको अन्दर आने देता है फिर सबको ढूंढ के गोली मारता है.

आर्मी पर रिश्वत ले कर आतंकवादियो को बॉर्डर पार कराने का आरोप मैं तो पहली बार सुन रहा था, और इस चीज से काफी अचंभित हुआ, पता नहीं उसकी बात में कितनी सच्चाई थी, या उसे खुद कितनी जानकारी थी इस बारे में, मगर ये मेरे लिए निश्चित ही बिलकुल हैरान करने वाली बात थी.

मैं : ओह !!  तो कश्मीर के लोग किसके साथ रहना चाहते हैं, इंडिया, पाकिस्तान या आजाद? 

शाल वाला : कोई फड़क नहीं पड़ता है अब तो, जो रखे बस अमन से जीने दे.

मैं : ओ.... वैसे, फारूख अब्दुल्ला, उमर अब्दुल्ला लोग कैसे हैं ? 

शाल वाला : सब एक जैसा ही है, सबको पैसा चाहए बस, सब आपस में लड़ता  रहता है और बीच में पब्लिक पिस्ता है बस. 

मैं : ओह और ये हुरियत वाले लोग ?

शाल वाला : हा हा (उसके चेहरे पर एक एक ठगे जाने के बाद वाली मुस्कराहट) वो लोग तो इन सब से बुरा है, बोलता है आजादी दिलाएंगे तुम लोगों को, हमारे साथ चलो, फिर फ़ौज के सामने पब्लिक को आगे कर देता है और खुद पीछे चला जाता है, और जब गोली चलता है तो (अपने सीने को बंद मुठी से ठोकते हुए) हम लोग मरता है हमलोग !! वो लोग सब भाग जाता है. 

कोई देखने वाला नहीं है, कुछ नहीं हो सकता, दोनों में से कोई मुल्क पीछे नहीं हटेगा कभी और ऐसे ही जीना पड़ेगा सबको हमेशा. 

मैं : (उसे झूठी सान्तवना देने के लिए मैंने कहा ) अरे नहीं चिंता मत कीजिये, AFSPA  को वापिस लेने को लेकर बात चल रही है सब ठीक हो जायेगा धीरे-धीरे.

शाल वाला, स्तंभित मुद्रा में सर हिलाते हुए और मुझे एहसास हुआ की शाल वाले को AFSPA  के बारे मैं नहीं पता, मैंने अन्तः मन मैं खुद को फटकार लगायी की वो शाल वाला ही है, उसे इन कानूनों के बारे मैं नहीं पता होगा और शायद पता होने की जरुरत भी नहीं है. 

चाय वाले को पैसे दिए, बात को समाप्त करते हुए मैंने शाल वाले से विदा मांगी, उसने भी मुकुराते हुए हामी भरी और (कुछ शाल बेचने के मकसद से जैसा कि मुझे लगा) मेरे घर का पता पूछा, मैंने भी मुस्कुराते हुए उसे अपने घर का पता बताया और कभी आने का निमंत्रण दिया और उसने आने का वादा किया.

कश्मीरी शाल वाले के साथ ये मेरी कोई पहली मुलाकात नहीं थी और ना ही इन विगत वर्षों में कश्मीर को ले कर मेरे दृष्टिकोण में कोई खास बदलाव आया है. मैं हमेशा से इसे भारत का एक अभिन्न्य अंग मानता रहा हूँ परन्तु आज सोचने पर विवश हूँ, कि कश्मीर की परिभाषा आखिर क्या है ? क्या हमारे लिए कश्मीर का मतलब  सिर्फ हिमालय कि गोद में बसा वो खुबसूरत सा भौगोलिक क्षेत्र है, जो कि हमें किसी भी कीमत पर चाहए, चाहे इसके लिए इसके वाशिंदों कि क़ुरबानी ही क्यों ना देनी पड़े, या कश्मीर का मतलब वहां के लोगों से है, जिनका साथ हम कभी नहीं छोड़ेंगे चाहे वो खुबसूरत सा भौगोलिक क्षेत्र  नष्ट ही कियों ना हो जाये? 

दुर्भाग्य से  इस प्रश्न का सही उत्तर किसी को नहीं पता, ना ही भारत-पाकिस्तान के लोगों को और ना ही वहां की सरकारों को. सभी बस हठ (ज़िद्द) के बीज बोते हैं, उसे खून से सींचते हैं और अंत मैं नफरत की फसल कटते हैं. सियासत की जंग मैं हार हमेशा इंसानियत की ही होती है. 1947 से आज तक अगर बंदूकें कोई फैसला नहीं कर सकीं तो एक बार बंदूकों को नीचें कर के तो देखो, क्या पता कुछ अच्छा हो जाये. अगर भारत की ही बात करें तो इसने कश्मीर को अपने साथ मिला कर ही आजतक क्या कर लिया, कौन सा रोजगार दे पाए आजतक हम लोग उन्हें, और कौन सी शिक्षा. लोग अपने घरो में सुरक्षित नहीं, सेना पब्लिक पर गोलियां चलती है, मानव अधिकार का सड़कों पर खुला उल्लंघन हो रहा है और जनता का सीधा शोषण, क्या यही भविष्य देनें के लिए चाहए कश्मीर हमें. 

दुर्भाग्य से कश्मीरऔर हमारे देश के भाग्य विधाता वो लोग हैं जिन्हें जलती चिताओं पर रोटीयां  सेंकने की आदत पड़ चुकी है. राजनीतिक एवं आर्थिक हितों को सर्वोपरि मानने वाले इस समाज मैं इंसानियत के लिए कोई जगह शेष नहीं है. कश्मीर आज एक चुनावी मुद्दा हैं, कोई दल धर्मनिरपेक्षता  की तोपें चला रहा है तो किसी को लाल चौक पर तिरंगा लहराकर शांति बहाल करना है. कुछ भी हो पर कश्मीर की जनता इन सब मैं कहीं नहीं हैं, उनके हितों की रक्षा करने वाला कोई नहीं है. कोई सरकार आये या जाये कोई फर्क नहीं पड़ता हैं, सभी पड़े रहेंगे बेसुध सत्ता और शक्ति के नशे मैं. बॉर्डर के उस पार का भी क्या कहा जाये, अपने देश वालों को, दो वक़्त की रोटी तो दिला नहीं पाए, वे आजतक, चले हैं कश्मीर को आजाद कराने. जो टुकरा मिला कश्मीर का वहां तो दूसरा नरक पैदा कर दिया और पूरा कश्मीर लेकर क्या तीसरा नरक बनायेंगे ? 

समय आ गया है कि हम आत्ममंथन करें, वर्षों पुराने मिथकों को तोड़ें, एक नयी शुरुआत करें, अपनी गलतियों से सीखें, उन्हें सुधारें, राजनेतिक लाभ या क्षति के विगणन से ऊपर उठ कर मानवीय परिपेक्ष मैं विषय वास्तु को देखें और सही निर्णय लें, इंसानियत के लिए एक नयी मिसाल कायम करें और एक उज्वल भविष्य का निर्माण करें. 

कश्मीर या इसके जैसे अन्य जटिल समस्याओ का समाधान हमारे अन्दर ही छुपा है बस इसे पहचानने कि जरुरत है.