The MODI Phenomenon

The rise of so called Hindu Nationalist leader and India's principal opposition party BJP's PM in waiting Narendra Modi is unique in several ways. He is being loved and hated by people like no other leader in Indian Political History has been. Here is an attempt to understand some aspects of the phenomenal rise of his influence over the Indian people and society.

His Supporters: 

1. Die hard supporters: His supporters have some kind of blind faith in him and consider him as some kind of incarnation from heavens for resolving all the problems being faced by this country today. There is nothing wrong with his die-hard supporters; they think they are serving their mother nation by serving him. Patriotism factor has been effectively capitalized by Modi Machinery to create such an enormous supporter base which is even ready to kill or get killed for him.
2. Normal supporters: Frustrated with the incumbent govt. there are plenty of people who are ready to support him as an alternative to the existing. They have or don’t have any good idea about his role in 2002 incident but are of forgiving class having faith in change of hearts and souls.

His Opponents: 

1. Strong opponents: His past record of handling of Gujarat Carnage and the subsequent developments under his reign in Gujarat has created an equally fierce force against him which is even ready to go thermo-nuclear any day, to prevent him from acquiring the national stage.
2. Normal opponents: These are people having their normal choices and don’t think that Narendra Modi would offer anything different and due to normal, political or ideological preferences are opposed to him.

Neutral People: 

There is also an undecided class which can not be classified in any of the above categories, that is his supporters or opponents. This class has further divisions:

                                                                

 Category-1

1. A- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall negative outlook but yet confused and undermined.
2. B- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall positive outlook but yet confused and undetermined.
3. C- These are people who have clear idea about his wrong and right deeds and having no overall outlook yet

Category-2

1. D- These people have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having an overall negative outlook but yet confused and undermined.
2. E- These people have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having a positive outlook but yet confused and undetermined.
3. F- These are people who have no idea about his wrong and right deeds and having no overall outlook, confused and undetermined.

Now let’s move to strategy room of Modi and company and look how they are dealing with these separate classes of people and adopting different methodologies to convert them in their favor. 

Generally a multi polar/colored identity system is working in India to deal with such classification and diversification of people for example:

A Sonia Gandhi to lure Gandhi-Nehru supporter base, a Manmohan singh for clean image and representative of intellectual community, a Shinde as a representative of Dalits, a Antony to represent minority (Christian) interests, a Rahul Gandhi to represent the youth power, Salman Khursheed for Muslim representation etc. Each one among the above faces in top Congress leadership or the govt. serves different unique purposes and has created a multi colored and diverse power block. 

Similar diversification is also found in regional parties (but a miniature version) like Azam Khan, Mulayam and Akhilesh combination representing Muslim, Yadav and Youth aspirations.

BJP doesn’t has that luxury and that much diversified spectrum of leadership capable to represent the interest of each and every corner of the nation from Kashmir to Kaniyakumari and from Christians to Hindus, from Schedule tribe to Forward Brahmins and from a rural farmer to a world re-known economist. 

So! What alternative lies with the BJP? 

The answer lies in personality politics. Creation of a larger than life multi colored personality capable enough to represent each and every section of the society. The result is obvious the anointment of Narendra Modi as the face of the party. His multi colored personality and ability to strike chords with everyone else is doing miracles these days. 

His Personality 

His personality has evolved over time; one time considered an intolerant Hindu Fanatic and dogmatic persona, ready to eliminate a whole religious civilization any day soon, is today known for his works for uplifting the Gujarat from an economic, social and political turmoil to a fast developing, industrialized and rapidly urbanizing state. His performance of governance and administration got recognition world over, corruption free, business friendly and growth oriented polity has won him universal applauds.

For each section he has a different face, for Business community he is a modest reformer, enthusiast statesman and no nonsense politician capable enough to correct India’s credit rating and future outlook just from his little advances in opinion polls. For Middle class he is a dream merchant selling dreams of World class cities like GIFT, Wide roads, infrastructure and entertainment hubs, jobs, financial security etc. For Poor he is a poor Chiawalah turned Chief Minister having a firsthand experience of kind of life in slums and poverty. To some sections he is a backward caste leader who would make India’s first backward PM and end the dominance of Forward Caste at top. For youth he is the one, who would bring unprecedented economic growth and generate employment opportunities, a technology friendly leader who would turn the present lackluster administrative machinery into an effective one. He would make India corruption free and make us the superpower. He would attack Pakistan and end terrorism in the country. Different people have different definition of him, and different reasons to support him. 

Why he is so effective? 

The answer once again lies in psychology. He is a mass manipulator of a very unique breed. He understands where to hit hard and at what point of time. How to connect with locals anywhere in the country. He has very high diversity in terms of experience and is effectively using his huge experience base in dealing and converting people. 

Modi is not a new phenomenon in Indian Politics; he has been a nightmare for the congress party for at least last 15 years. Congress kept on ignoring him considering his regional limitations but he kept on evolving and evolving over time and acquired the present giant mass and size. There is no reason but the less than effective Gujarat Congress and ignorant central leadership of congress responsible for his present rise. 

Best Defence is offence ! 

This is the strategy presently being followed by Narendra Modi. 

He has pin pointed all the loop holes in ‘Congress Super Structure’ over the time and has ready to fire missiles in very high alert mode. I still wonder why Political Pundits never consider the timing of rise of NAMO. His timing of rise is spectacular especially with the sense that now congress is standing at one of the weakest point of its history of 125 years or so. His offensive campaigns, attacks on topics like Foreign policy, Defense preparedness, dealing with terrorism, economic policy, social cohesion, administrative efficiency, corruption, governance, leadership or anything else would seem more than justified to any rational being both in the theoretical and practical sense. 

Now consider his hyped, flawed statistics of Gujarat Development or his poor knowledge and understanding of History, Economics and International relation. This weakness can be easily felt if one pays attention to his rather frequent speeches at public rallies. The congress and other Modi baiters work 24x7 to pinch holes in his speeches and data he presents but at the end of the day there is hardly any impact over him or his audience. 

The impact assessment tells us a different story. His impact is far greater and intense than the parties and people opposed to him. What he actually does is to put a number of blames and accusations against his rivals. Though all his accusations are not always true to core or wells researched but are always in line with the public perception and general belief patterns. Right or wrong is not a question for him but the acceptability of his assertions, things are right as long as they appear true and acceptable.

He is conducting rallies after rallies in a very quick succession, everyday he has new set of facts, data, substance, claims, accusations and blames which keep busy the congress core team in research and data mining. By the time Congress comes with errors, omissions and factually correct answers, he has already made new statements in a new rally somewhere else and the discussion topic has shifted to the new controversy he just created and virtually there is no one available to buy congress research works of previous episodes. Even that research is made a subject of debate and discussion by the second and third line leadership of BJP causing frustration, helplessness and anger among Congress cadres and they end up abusing and baiting Modi in undemocratic fashion.

Though he may not be considered a class of a person, doing high quality politics but what surely he has mastered in is quantitative politics. Do what appeals to masses rather than having an appeal for limited no. of classes, it is also a time tested formula in Indian Polity Lalu Prashad did it in Bihar and Mamata didi did it in Bengal. A factually incorrect statement which appeals masses is preferable to a factually correct one but having limited audience. His speeches have humor, satires, mimicking, comments, jabs, fun, energy, enthusiasm, aggression or anything else needed for a perfect show. He has done to political speeches and rallies, what a 20-20 version of cricket has done to the one day and test cricket. 

We are living in a country where political parties have to convey to the rural and uneducated masses, every election, that Congress means Nehru and Gandhi and has a symbol of ‘hand’ and BJP means Atal and Advani and has a symbol of lotus. Recently a rural women, when asked, whom she is going to vote for, replied MODI and when asked what symbol she would press to vote him, she was clueless!! This might not be case for every Indian but the things worse if not worst.

Go to sub-urban/rural India, and ask people who are Manish Tiwari, Shashi Tharoor, Digvijay Singh, Rashid Alvi and Ajay Maken, or the Prakash Javedkar, Minakshi Leki, RaviShankar Prashad or the Nirmala Sita Ram and see what answer you get. These people only know or have good idea about top leadership like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Shinde, Chidambaram etc. or Advani, Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Jaitley etc. 

While the attack from BJP side is being led by top leadership like Rajnath Singh, Advani, Modi, Swaraj etc. the Congress is being defended by 2nd and 3rd level of leadership who are not even widely known faces. For some unknown reason the top leadership of congress is way too shy to face public which is doing more harm to Congress than any good. 

Possibilities of RJD-NDA Alliance

NDA alliance has ended in Bihar on the question of bigger role for Modi.

2. If elections happen today, there is more probability of a hung assembly, either with the JDU or the RJD emerging as single largest party. 

3. In any case (as of now) none of the three parties are in a condition to form a govt. on their own and almost zero possibility of any kind of alliance between them. 

4. There are rumors about JDU+Congress +/- LJP alliance in the state.

5. The recent inclination of Nitish Kumar towards Congress has increased the possibility of such an alliance; Congress has also softened its stand towards JDU. 

6. The presence of Congress in Bihar is almost negligible and would be of limited help to JDU, the base of LJP (a stand-less and agenda-less) party has also contracted. 

7. Still a pre-pool alliance would increase vote percentage, may provide them the needed thrust to win over the state again. 

8. After the NDA split the Main competing forces (for assembly) are JDU and RJD with BJP being at third position, so JDU has more threat from RJD than from BJP. 

9. Therefore the first Priority of Nitish would be to contain RJD.

10. Split with BJP and the Secularism rhetoric of JDU would certainly win JDU handsome amount of Muslim Votes and destabilize RJD's M-Y equation further, though there would be equal spill of upper caste votes but that won't go with RJD but with BJP which is a secondary threat.

11. With almost half of backward votes + newer Muslim votes + Maha-Dalit votes and a possible pre-pool alliance with Congress and LJP, the future looks rosy for JDU. 

12. If Congress ditches RJD in the same fashion as JDU ditched BJP what alternatives Lalu Prashad has ?

13. The first priority for Lalu Prashad is to gain power in order to keep his party alive, intact and united. 

14. In case congress ditches RJD and Muslim votes has to be shared with JDU, RJD has practically no alternative but to make an alliance with BJP for its survival. 

15. This may lead to further spill of Muslim votes but the addition of upper caste votes would compensate the loss and the alliance would certainly have higher vote percentage to seat conversion ratio. 

16. This kind of alliance would be the worst nightmare for JDU and its party chief Nitish Kumar. 

17. BJP in Bihar is more potent partner than the Congress and LJP combined, both quantitatively and qualitatively (as RJD, Congress and JDU share similar kind of vote bank). 

18. There is less to lose than to gain, if RJD comes under the ambit of NDA. 

Analysis :  

If we analyse the data of 2010 elections minutely, there were no significant gains in the percentage of votes for JDU and BJP. JDU got 22.61% of votes from an earlier figure of 20.46%, an increase of mere 2.15% but a significant increase of 27 seats while BJP getting 16.46% of votes from an earlier level of 15.65%, a mere 0.81% increase in vote% but a whopping 36 seats increment. 

What made this possible ? 

The answer is, 4.61% loss of RJD vote share. 

In First-past-the-post voting system, which is prevalent in our country, you are not always bound to perform, in case, if you are unable to perform or increase your vote share percentage, play negative politics, cut and divide the percentage votes share of your opponents, you'll still win with a very small margin. 

Check the 23.45% share of RJD in 2005 and 20.46% share of JDU in the same year, still the JDU has 34 more seats than RJD? 

In 2010 it was the loss of 4.61% of vote share of RJD which decreased its vote Share% to seat conversion ratio to 1.17 (1.17 seats for every one percent vote share) from earlier figure of 2.30 against a united and consolidated strength of JDU and BJP. 

Similarly, LJP, whose Maha-Dalit vote bank loss + Promising NDA govt. made it to loose 4.35% vote share and around 7 seats. 

Lets take an example to understand this Political Maths in a better way : 

Suppose there are three parties A, B and C with A and C, being an alliance partner. A is having 35% share, B having 40% vote share while the C having 25% vote share. 

1) As the A and C are having an alliance They'll surely win due to higher vote share. 

2) Now, the alliance breaks and all parties are competing with each other who will win ? 

The simple answer seems to be B (with highest 40% vote share)but the same is not universally true. The game rests with vote types. If B and C share similar kinds of votes (say of same or similar caste/religious groups ) 'A' will still manage to win. B having higher percentage of vote share would loose because C would cut short the height of B, lower than A, who would win with a very small margin of votes. 

Similar conditions exist in Bihar, after the NDA split, RJD =>JDU's vote share percentage, but JDU will gain newer Muslim votes and would diversify its portfolio with diverse kinds of votes ranging from MahaDalits to Backwards and even Muslims. The BJP would take away significant portion of upper caste votes and the Congress and LJP (if not in alliance with RJD) would eat some amount of  Muslim and Dalit votes respectively. As a result despite RJD is having highest vote share%, JDU will sweep elections and form the government. In case JDU enters in alliance with Congress and LJP its Vote share% to seat conversion ration would get further sharpened.

The Diversity of votes is a very important consideration for winning any election and that is the reason why Congress has ruled India 80% of time and party such as BJP having limited section of voters in limited geography always ends with disappointment. 

In Bihar, JDU is having widest portfolio of voters representing different castes and religions, ethnic and economic groups, which makes it strongest player in Bihar's politics. 

If RJD somehow makes and alliance with BJP, its diversity and strength would surpass that of JDU and all other parties putted together, as the BJP and RJD have unique vote-banks with almost nothing in common. So the diversity would increase the vote share% to seats conversion ratio by multiple folds.

Modi Bashing and Roads Ahead....

Modi bashing is increasingly becoming favorite sport in Indian media & political space. Recently his Puppy and Hindu nationalist remarks created a wave of criticisms across all party lines. Yet there was quick response from his party to defend his stand and clarify the intended interpretation of his words but all efforts went in vain. Other parties left no stone unturned to capitalize upon the available opportunity to launch attacks upon him.

Prima facie it looks like a situation where he has been sent into a political exile. In the puppy remark case without any exception, everyone else criticized him for a reason which he may not have ever wondered. If there is any occasion of criticizing him, almost all parties, are found standing in a long queue waiting for their respective term. Country is overwhelmingly getting flooded with Secular parties. There is an increasing understanding among political elite that more you bash Modi, more secular you become so no one wants to forgo this wonderful opportunity.

Serious questions were raised over the secular credentials of Nitish Kumar post 2002 period, neither Tilak nor Topi helped him to become secular but quitting NDA over Modi did the job!! Congress itself certified him. Even within BJP there is no unanimous support for him, former communal forces, now a day’s termed moderate, don’t want to see him for the top job. All these factors conclusively make him most communal and polarizing face in the country today.

Ask Congress, they say Modi is our last hope, If BJP projects Modi as PM candidate, the Administrative, Economic, Foreign Policy, Internal/External Security, Law & Order failure + rampant corruption and Price rise are no more issues, election would be fought directly on the basis of secularism and communalism where they may have an edge.

Modi has cultivated more foe than friends, in an era of coalition politics he is left with no one to support, parties are more interested to form a 3^rd, 4^th or even a 5^th front than coming under his reign. If this is the case then why BJP is projecting him as their Prime Ministerial candidate?

Let’s go back to 1977, during the period of emergency (1975-1977) every one suffered, may be it were opposition parties or the general public. Civil liberties were suspended; there were serious instances of human right violations, forced Nasbandis or whatever, Indira Gandhi was termed Authoritarian and Dictator and even compared with Adolf Hitler or the British or any other worst example possible. Four main opposition parties got united together to form Janata Party and rest others subscribed to its alliance.

Baiting Indira Gandhi was common practice at that time, she was left aloof both inside and outside party, there were strong internal opposition in her party cadres too, and a prominent leader Jagjivan Ram even left the party and joined Janata Alliance. It was a situation of Indira vs. rest. The rest were even able to form a government at the centre while Indira loosing near about 200 seats. Newly formed govt. soon started a witch hunt against her, who left no opportunity to portrait herself as harassed women and thus gained electorally by next elections. The happiness of Janata Party was short lived as it failed to deliver a strong leader and out of internal conflicts soon collapsed back into dust.

In 7^th LokSabha Elections (1980) Indira Gandhi won with flying colors (351+ seats) while Janata Alliance settled with mere 32 seats from earlier figure of 298. So what was the main theme of the story?

• Even major wrong doings of ‘strong leaders’ are forgiven.
• Too much bashing and harassment of one leader would win him sympathy votes.
• Any alliance made from large no. of parties can’t expect a unanimous voice and unity. 
• It is nothing but leadership vacuum which voters never tolerate.

Presently, there is a never like before leadership crisis in the country, which even the most prominent leaders of incumbent govt. can’t deny of. That is why, they want bigger role for Rahul or Sonia. Though, Modi’s communal image, which is so intense that in relative terms even LKA is looking moderate, is still troublesome for his universal acceptability. But this trouble becomes opportunity when you can convert your greatest weakness into your greatest strength.

Indira’s weakness was her image of an authoritarian, a dictator which she transformed into an image of strong leader and an administrator, who could provide a stable and strong government, thanks to divided house of Janata alliance which failed to deliver any such dominant leader. Narendra Modi’s weakness is his communal identity, He is perceived as a Hindu Fundamentalist who can’t represent minority’s interests, while trying to calming that aspect, he is more seen as intensifying that image. If we look at his game plan he has no interest in wooing Muslim vote bank which by no means is going to support him but to reckon upon the polarized Hindu Votes.

Today, the condition looks quite similar to what at the time of Indira Gandhi but with few minor differences. All parties are united against one man, who is having a public image of a very strong leader. At the same time, he is also facing similar witch hunt, may be, it is Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case or enquiry after enquiry over 2002 carnage. Congress has exhausted its whole party machinery in order to contain Modi, which is giving him quite more time on TV-news channel debates. For congress it has become important to criticize him than to portrait some of their good works.

There is another perception in our political circles that people are tolerant to corruption, show them the fear of communal riots, fear of some particular caste dominance etc. and they’ll give you license of looting the public treasury again and again. Up to extent, the electoral behavior in our country has supported the above argument but not to forget there always exists an upper threshold, best examples may be seen in the 1989 LS elections, where the Rajiv Gandhi lead congress, winning more than 400 seats previously, was thrown out of power due to Bofors Scam, In Bihar, 2005, people tolerating the excessively corrupt government, out of fears of change in caste balance, voted for NDA.

The present situation is grist of all situations, the incumbent government which has been voted for two consecutive terms, has broken all records of corruptions and misrule and the party has no agenda but the same old rhetoric of Secularism vs Communalism.  How many times one will use the same formula? Last elections in 2009, they were having huge economic success story with them, a brighter future prospect and clean image of a specialist prime minister but what about now? There is an 180⁰ shift in the position. Economic miracle is a lost story; the honest perceived Prime Minister is heading a most corrupt government of independent India, even his own integrity is under judicial scrutiny in Coalgate case.

Congress adopted a number of, social security schemes in order to clean its image and it was a high time to portrait its image of a pro people government, opposition was in a state of dilemma, whether to support or oppose schemes like the Food Security Bill bill. As Congress had adopted the route of Ordinance, the bill was already into action wile whole credit resting with the incumbent govt. There should have been huge debate sessions, articles after articles in news papers, websites and blogs over the implications of the bill but what is present scene? Modi is making news not the Congress, media is discussing the possible intentions behind either the ‘Puppy’ or the ‘veil of secularism’ Remark with leaders like Digvijay Singh and Manish Tiwari showing their immature behavior and criticizing him insanely.

Yashwant Sinha was correct in his Economics Time’s article that more they’ll attack Modi, more popularity he will gain. The congress seems completely failed in decoding the Modi’s game plan. He is inviting criticism from each and every corner and working for more. What he actually wants to prove is Secularism (in India) means Muslim Appeasement in the same fashion as Hindutva today means communalism? He is also successful in conveying this message upto some extent, see how Digvijay Singh, now is defending his religious orientation. His opponents mindlessly made a matter of Puppy and Burka remark with everybody asking him for a definition of secularism. This kind of attitude strongly divides people on two lines of his supporters and haters, even if they are in equal ratios, Modi supports vote is united while his haters votes gets divided in 30+ major secular parties in the county and that makes his chances more realistic.

But above everything else, everyone is baiting him but no one has presented any better alternative. Voters would ask, If you say Modi is not right for India fine no problem but whom to vote for? Show us the leader? He is changing the course of Party style politics of India into Person centric politics like what is prevalent in US Presidential elections. Today there is virtually no successful leader in the country, having statue as high as Modi, if there are alternatives like Nitish or Navin Patnayak they belong to such parties which at their best can’t win more than 20-25 seats. In Congress any leader other than Sonia or Rahul will be just another puppet Prime Minister with control remaining at the hands of party president.  So, Congress is hopeless in the case of leadership it could offer.

Manmohan Sing’s 10 year of rule has created a huge leadership vacuum which needs to get filled. Congress may show the fear of Hindu fundamentalism to Muslims or Christians but the fear of Modi’s reign won’t work upon Hindus and related religious minorities like Sikh, Jain, Bodh etc.  Conclusively, all these factors make unbiased class of voters confused if not convinced. So, in the absence of any strong leadership from Congress or third front, voters may subscribe to BJP. Congress must chalk out some effective strategy, if it has to maintain its competitive edge in the upcoming elections and also device out leadership from its barracks otherwise its worst nightmares are going to be a damn reality very soon.